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May 12, 2017

Buffett氏、株主へのコメント、The 2017 meeting!

9 Best Warren Buffett Quotes From the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting:
FORTUNE:5/8
・Every year at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, deliver their views and advice on just about any subject their shareholders ask about.
The 2017 meeting, which took place in Omaha Saturday, covered topics as diverse as Google and Amazon stock, Wells Fargo, artificial intelligence, the Republican health care bill, and whether Berkshire Hathaway stock will ever pay a dividend.

On Amazon and CEO Jeff Bezos:
"He has been the CEO almost simultaneously of two businesses starting from scratch. Andy Grove at Intel (INTC, -0.76%) used to say if you had a silver bullet and you could shoot it and get rid of one of your competitors who would it be? I think that both in the cloud and in retail, there are a lot of people who would aim the silver bullet at Jeff ... And we missed it entirely. We never owned a share of Amazon (AMZN, +1.44%) ... I was too dumb to realize what was going to happen. I admired Jeff, but I did not think he’d succeed on the scale that he has, and I didn’t even think of the possibility that he’d do the things with the cloud services. I never even considered buying Amazon.
・"If you asked me if while he was building up the retail operation he’d also be doing something that would disrupt the tech industry, that would have been a long shot for me. I really underestimated the brilliance of the execution. It's one thing to dream about, it's another thing to do it ... [Amazon stock] always looked expensive, and I really never thought he would do what he did today. I thought he was really brilliant, but I didn't think he'd be where he is today when I looked at it three, five, eight years ago anyway."

On IBM and Apple:
・"When I bought IBM (IBM, -1.30%) six years ago, I thought it would do better in the six years that have elapsed than it has. In terms of IBM and Apple (AAPL, +2.72%), I regard them as being quite different businesses ... I was wrong on the first one, and we’ll find out whether I'm right or wrong on the second. But I don’t regard them as apples and apples, and I don't quite regard them as apples and oranges. It's somewhere in between on that."

On the Future of Berkshire Hathaway:
・"If I died tonight, I think the stock would go up tomorrow."

PI研のコメント:
バフェット氏が毎年開催している「the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting、The 2017 meeting」での株主への質問等に答えたエッセンスを5/8、FORTUNEが記事として配信しました。9つにまとめた内容ですが、その中で2つが特に興味深かったのでとりあげました。ひとつは、アマゾンに対してのコメントです。バフェット氏はアマゾンの株を購入したことがないそうですが、「we missed it entirely」、アマゾンを過小評価していたとのことです。その最大の要因は、「in the cloud and in retail」、この2つの一見、結びつかないようなビジネスの関係を理解できていなかったことにあるようです。アマゾンはいまや世界一のeコマースですが、その背後にcloudがあり、この2つを融合させ、現実の小売業に多大な影響を及ぼす企業を作り上げるとは想像できなったとのことです。そして、もうひとつ、アップルとIBMについてです。バフェット氏はIBMの株を購入してきたわけですが、「I was wrong on the first one」とのことで、この2つの企業をリンゴとリンゴか、それともリンゴとオレンジか、判断がつかなかったとのことです。答えは、そのどこかにあるはずだがとのことで、結果、アップルの株を6年前には買わず、IBMの株を買ったとのことです。いずれの事例もバフェット氏としては後悔していることのようで、株主も最も聞いてみたかったことのようです。企業の評価、しかも、5年、10年前、いいかえれば5年後、10年後の評価がいかに難しいか、神のみぞ知る領域を示した事例かと思います。最後のコメント、もし、Buffett氏が死んだら、株があがるだろう、買いとは意味深ですね。

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May 12, 2017 |

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